sora 52547de9a3 Gate: exponential probe + binary search for capacity discovery
Replaces the +1/5s linear ramp: start at 1, double while measured
completions/s keeps improving (>10% over the previous level); the
first plateau opens a bisect [last_good, bad] that narrows to the
knee, then holds steady. Failures still cut x0.7 instantly and
restart probing from the shrunken level; zero completions = hold.

Judging a level needs max(MIN_OK, level) completions -- a
2-completion rate estimate at level 8 is quantization noise (caught
by simulation converging to 1 on a capacity-8 endpoint).

Simulated against throughput curves min(level, capacity):
  capacity 8  -> 1,2,4,8,16 | bisect 12,10,9  -> steady 8
  capacity 16 -> 1,2,4,8,16,32 | bisect ...    -> steady 16
  capacity 4  -> 1,2,4,8 | bisect 6,5         -> steady 4

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-09-15 02:42:53 +00:00
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